The development of the atomic bomb during the Second World War
was a stunning scientific and engineering achievement. Created
by order of President Franklin Roosevelt in 1942, the Manhattan
Project had produced by 1945 enough enriched uranium and
plutonium for the August attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki that
ended the Second World War. The sources of that enriched uranium
and plutonium were the Oak Ridge site in Tennessee (then called
Clinton Laboratories) and the Hanford Engineering Works in
Washington, respectively—massive industrial complexes
built from scratch to spearhead the development effort. After
the war, these sites were expanded and additional sites
established to meet the nation's growing demands for nuclear
materials for the Cold War arms race with the Soviet Union.
The effort to build the bomb and win the arms race exacted a
steep environmental price. Substantial quantities of radioactive
and chemical contaminants were released to the environment, and
even today large quantities of radioactive and toxic waste
remain in storage at several sites. While it was being produced,
few provisions were made for "solving" the problem of
waste—that is, putting the waste into a stable form and
placing it out of reach of people and the environment—and
the passage of time has since exacerbated the difficulties. With
institutional memories fading and facilities aging, management
of this legacy has become a more difficult, expensive and
perilous undertaking.
The federal government, under the
auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is making large
expenditures of taxpayer funds to address the environmental
legacy of the arms race. But after almost 13 years of effort and
outlays of over $70 billion, the goal of "cleanup" is
proving elusive. Through the work of independent expert
committees appointed by the National Research Council, we have
been following the DOE cleanup program for many years. Here, in
a personal and unofficial assessment of what has been learned,
we examine that program's efforts to come to terms with the
environmental consequences of weapons production, including its
technical and societal dimensions. Our examination suggests that
it is time for the cleanup program to redefine success based on
reducing and managing the human and environmental health risks
that will extend far into the future.
Nuclear-Weapons Production
The U.S. nuclear weapons complex is massive in scale and highly
dispersed: some 5,000 facilities located at 16 major sites and
more than 100 smaller sites, ranging from mills to recover
uranium from mined ore to facilities for weapons assembly,
maintenance and testing. The largest facilities in the complex
are those built for materials production and
processing—Hanford, the Idaho National Engineering and
Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), Oak Ridge and Savannah River
in South Carolina. At these locations, nuclear materials
(enriched uranium, plutonium and tritium) were produced for use
in weapons, naval fuel and civilian nuclear applications. Their
massive scale was dictated by the need for secrecy and safety as
well as the physics of nuclear-materials production.
Manhattan Project scientists believed that an atomic weapon
could be constructed using either of two radioactive isotopes,
uranium-235 or plutonium-239. But obtaining sufficient
quantities of these materials (tens of kilograms per bomb)
proved a technically difficult and expensive challenge.
Uranium-235, the principal isotope of a uranium weapon such as
that used at Hiroshima, makes up about 0.7 percent by mass of
natural uranium, most of the remainder being uranium-238. To be
usable in a fission weapon, uranium-235 must be concentrated
(enriched) to greater than 20 percent and preferably, for
greatest efficiency, to over 90 percent. Uranium enriched to 20
percent or more uranium-235 is "highly enriched
uranium" (HEU).
Uranium enrichment during the
Manhattan Project exploited the small mass differences between
uranium-235 and uranium-238 using electromagnetic separation and
gaseous diffusion—the latter a process still used in the
United States to enrich uranium for civilian power plants.
Thousands of separation stages were required to obtain
sufficient uranium-235 enrichment, and the facilities housing
these processes were scaled to yield the required quantities.
Two plants were built during the Manhattan Project to
obtain the roughly 50 kilograms of enriched uranium for the
"Little Boy" weapon that was dropped on Hiroshima: the
K-25 building at the Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion Plant and the
Y-12 electromagnetic-separation plant at Oak Ridge. After the
war, the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) expanded the gaseous
diffusion plant and built two additional enrichment facilities,
the Paducah plant in Kentucky and the Portsmouth plant in Ohio,
to meet growing civilian demands.
Plutonium-239, the
principal isotope in "weapons-grade" plutonium, was
produced by irradiating uranium-238 fuel rods with neutrons in
large production reactors built along the Columbia River at the
Hanford site. The capture of a neutron by uranium-238 produces
uranium-239, which subsequently decays to neptunium-239 and then
plutonium-239.
Once a plutonium-239 atom is produced,
additional neutron captures can cause it to fission or produce
heavier "reactor grade" plutonium (primarily
plutonium-240 and -241), which is not as suitable for weapons.
To minimize additional captures, the Hanford operators removed
the fuel rods from the reactor after a short irradiation time,
but this required large throughputs of uranium to obtain the
needed quantities of plutonium. Three reactors and two chemical
processing plants were built at Hanford to produce plutonium for
the war effort. Following the war, the AEC built six additional
reactors and three chemical processing plants at Hanford and
five reactors and two chemical processing plants at Savannah
River to meet the growing plutonium demands.
Tritium,
an isotope of hydrogen and a key component of fusion weapons
("hydrogen bombs"), which were first developed by the
United States in the early 1950s, was produced by the
irradiation of lithium-6 targets in the production reactors at
Savannah River. An isotope-separation facility was constructed
at the Y-12 site at Oak Ridge to produce lithium-6 for this
purpose.
During the roughly 45 years of
nuclear-materials production in this country, about 103 metric
tons of weapons-grade plutonium were obtained from the
production reactors at Hanford and Savannah River; 994 metric
tons of highly enriched uranium were obtained from the
enrichment plants at Oak Ridge, Portsmouth and Paducah. Some of
these materials have been declared to be surplus to U.S. defense
needs (see table). Plans are now in place to turn most
of this excess into fuel for use in nuclear power plants. The
spent fuel will be disposed of in a geologic repository. Dealing
with the by-products of nuclear-materials production is another
matter.
Environmental Consequences
Although the production of nuclear materials generated huge
quantities of waste, good records of radioactive and chemical
waste production and environmental discharges generally were not
kept until the 1970s. What is known of that early history today
is based on reviews of written records supplemented by process
knowledge and mass-balance calculations. We have been selective
in our use of data in the following discussion, preferring more
recent sources that contain documentation for the estimates. We
also have rounded the data except where there is demonstrated
support for greater precision.
The uranium-enrichment
process produced low-level solid and liquid wastes and other
process liquids, and up to 200 kilograms of depleted uranium
(enriched in uranium-238) for every kilogram of HEU. There are
on the order of half a million metric tons (metal equivalent) of
depleted uranium in storage at several sites, and although this
material is not classified as waste, most of it has no
agreed-upon disposition pathway.
The separation of
lithium-6 for tritium production used on the order of 10,000
metric tons of mercury, of which about 900 metric tons is
unaccounted for. The DOE estimates that about 110 metric tons
was discharged into East Fork Poplar Creek at Oak Ridge, and
some of this contamination has migrated offsite and into the
Clinch River–Watts Bar Reservoir system that is used for
recreation and municipal water supply. The inorganic mercury
compounds in this waste are not thought to be toxic, but they
can pose a hazard to human beings if transformed to
methylmercury by soil and water microorganisms.
Plutonium production also produced large quantities of waste:
During the 50 years of operation of the Hanford site, for
example, about 67 metric tons of plutonium were produced from
almost 97,000 metric tons of irradiated uranium fuel. Chemical
processing of that uranium to recover plutonium produced some 2
million cubic meters (500 million gallons) of highly
radioactive, chemically toxic waste, and another 1.7 billion
cubic meters (450 billion gallons) of process liquids. The DOE
reports that about 76,000 cubic meters of solid waste
contaminated with actinides (principally plutonium) and an
additional 1.2 million cubic meters of other solid low-level
wastes have been buried at the site.
Some of the waste
generated by nuclear materials production was released directly
to the environment. Volatile gases from chemical processing were
vented directly into the atmosphere, sometimes without
filtering, especially during the early years of production.
Reactor cooling water contaminated with conditioning chemicals
such as chromium and with radioactive isotopes produced in the
reactor (neutron-activation products) were also discharged.
Waste liquids were discharged into large surface ponds or into
subsurface soil and groundwater through injection wells and
other drainage structures. Radioactive and chemically
contaminated solid waste was burned or dumped into shallow pits
and trenches.
Indeed, there are thousands of
"release sites" that are current or potential future
sources of contaminant releases to the environment. As a result
of such releases, soil and groundwater at many sites are
extensively contaminated with industrial solvents, toxic
chemicals, metals and radionuclides.
Large volumes of waste remain in storage at several sites and
could become significant sources of future environmental
contamination if not managed properly. At Hanford, for example,
there are about 200,000 cubic meters of high-level waste in
storage in 177 large underground tanks. These tanks have been in
service between 16 and 58 years; under current plans, the last
tank will not be closed until about 2046. The older,
single-containment tanks were designed with service lives of 10
to 20 years, although no one really knew how long they would
last. One tank began leaking just six years after it was put
into service, and to date 67 of these tanks are suspected to
have leaked up to 5,700 cubic meters, or 1.5 million gallons,
and possibly more than a million curies of high-level waste into
the subsurface. (Curies are a measure of radioactivity in a
material; for comparison, a ton of uranium-238 has 0.3 curies.)
Some of this contamination has reached groundwater.
At
Savannah River, there exist some 130,000 cubic meters (34
million gallons) of high-level waste stored in 48 underground
tanks. Nine of the tanks have leaked waste into their secondary
containments, and a few tens of liters of waste leaked into the
environment from one tank when the secondary containment
overflowed. Efforts are now under way to immobilize the sludge
fraction of this waste in a borosilicate glass matrix.
The Idaho site processed naval spent fuel and some research
reactor fuel to recover enriched uranium, but here, unlike at
Hanford and Savannah River, the high-level waste was immobilized
as a powdered ceramic (calcine), about 4,000 cubic meters of
which are being stored in stainless steel bin sets inside
steel-reinforced concrete silos. These structures were designed
to contain the waste for up to 500 years. Additionally, another
4,000 cubic meters of so-called "sodium-bearing waste"
liquids await disposition in some of the site's 11 underground
storage tanks.
Past practices for managing the large
volumes of waste generated by nuclear materials production, when
judged by today's standards, appear ill-informed at best,
bordering on reckless at worst. It is important, however, to
judge these practices against the prevailing environmental
attitudes and practices during the Second World War and Cold
War. The Manhattan Project was created during a national
emergency at a time when the future of Europe and Asia hung in
the military balance. National priority was given to weapons
production at the expense of waste management. This sense of
urgency, and a shroud of secrecy that hid production activities
from public view, carried over into the Cold War, although
increasing effort was given to minimizing environmental releases
as time went on.
Wartime shortages of materials such as stainless steel created
further difficulties. Carbon steel was employed to construct the
waste tanks at Hanford and Savannah River, with the result that
the high-level waste, which was highly acidic, had to be
neutralized with alkaline chemicals such as sodium hydroxide to
reduce tank corrosion. The addition of these chemicals to the
waste increased volumes and produced solid precipitates. Later
chemical processing and volume-reduction operations to reduce
radioactive heat generation and conserve tank space further
increased physical and chemical heterogeneity. Characterization
of this waste and removal of the precipitates from the tanks
will be difficult and expensive, especially at Hanford.
The waste-management decisions made during the Manhattan
Project and ensuing Cold War created the environmental problems
that the nation now confronts. These decisions continue to exact
a steep price, both in the high annual costs of managing the
stored waste and environmental contamination, and also in the
loss of trust by citizens in their government as the
consequences of waste-management practices carried out in
secrecy for almost five decades have become public knowledge.
From Production to "Cleanup"
The decline of large-scale nuclear-weapons production began in
the late 1970s and accelerated through the 1980s, coinciding
with the thaw in Cold War relations that culminated in the
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and the breakup of the
Soviet Union, both in 1991. At the same time, the reactor
accidents at Three Mile Island in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986
raised public concerns about the continuing operations of U.S.
production reactors. In May 1986, Energy Secretary John
Harrington asked the National Academy of Sciences and National
Academy of Engineering to review the safety of the government's
production and research reactors. He also commissioned a group
of experts to review the operation of the N-Reactor at Hanford.
Based on that review, he shut down the reactor in 1987,
commenting that the United States had no need for it because the
country was "awash in plutonium."
During this
same period states also were beginning to assert their authority
to regulate environmental releases at the sites, prompted by a
1984 federal court ruling that the Y-12 site at Oak Ridge was
subject to state regulation under the Resource Conservation and
Recovery Act. Complaints from Colorado led to the June 1989
Federal Bureau of Investigation raid and closure of the Rocky
Flats site, a 1951-vintage weapons-component manufacturing
facility near Denver, for violations of federal environmental
laws. Five months later, Energy Secretary James Watkins
announced the creation of the Office of Environmental
Restoration and Waste Management (now the Office of
Environmental Management) and declared a new mission for weapons
sites: environmental cleanup. The era of large-scale
nuclear-weapons production had ended.
The new cleanup
program contrasted, in many respects, with the production
operations. From the earliest days of the Manhattan Project,
weapons production had been conducted with scientific and
technical rigor and a strong focus on meeting production goals
that were noticeably lacking in the early years of the cleanup
effort. One of the first actions taken by the new program,
before it had developed an adequate understanding of the
environmental insults at its sites or its scientific and
technical capabilities to address them, was to negotiate legally
enforceable cleanup agreements with states and regulators. Many
of these original agreements had to be renegotiated after the
problems were more fully understood. At present, the cleanup
program is operating under some 70 separate agreements that
contain more than 7,000 schedule milestones, many of which are
potentially enforceable via court action.
Although the
cleanup program has been in operation for over a decade, it has,
until recently, accomplished relatively little actual cleanup.
To be sure, DOE has had some important recent successes, both in
site remediation and waste disposal. Perhaps its most notable
waste disposal success was the 1999 opening of the Waste
Isolation Pilot Plant near Carlsbad, New Mexico. This deep
geologic repository will eventually be used to dispose of up to
about 175,000 cubic meters of defense-generated transuranic
waste (mainly plutonium-contaminated debris, clothing and tools,
and the like) from nuclear weapons sites. Additionally, DOE has
recommended Yucca Mountain, Nevada as the site for a deep
geologic repository for spent fuel and high-level waste and is
now in the process of developing an application for a
construction license, which it plans to submit to the Nuclear
Regulatory Commission in 2004. If constructed, this repository
will be used to dispose of the immobilized high-level waste and
spent fuel from nuclear weapons sites along with commercial
spent fuel.
The notable remediation successes include
the stabilization and capping of mill tailings piles and the
cleanup of some Manhattan-era sites, the latter of which is
presently being carried out by the Army Corps of Engineers.
Also, successful efforts are being mounted at many sites to
characterize the nature and extent of environmental
contamination, halt the spread of contaminated groundwater, and
cap waste burial sites to retard water infiltration and
contaminant leakage. Work also is proceeding to decontaminate
and demolish buildings and clean up contaminated soil and
groundwater at some of the smaller sites (such as Fernald and
Mound) so that they can be declared closed around 2006.
Perhaps the most significant technical success in the
remediation program to date has been the construction and
successful operation of a $2.5 billion plant at Savannah River
for immobilizing high-level waste, which went into production in
1996 and has to date produced more than 1,200 canisters of
borosilicate waste glass. At Hanford, work also has begun to
cocoon the nine production reactors, remediate contaminated soil
and groundwater along the Columbia River, and stabilize
corroding spent fuel from the N-Reactor that has been stored for
over decade in two unlined water basins next to the river, one
of which is leaking. This fuel is being dried, canned and placed
into temporary storage away from the river. With the notable
exception of the immobilization program at Savannah River,
however, none of these remediation actions has been technically
demanding. In fact, attempts to undertake the technically
demanding tasks have failed, due largely to inadequate
scientific and technical understanding. Three examples serve to
illustrate this point.
In the early 1990s, the Idaho
laboratory began a project to excavate and treat waste and
contaminated soil from a 1-acre site known as "Pit 9,"
one of a series of pits and trenches used for disposal of
low-level and transuranic radioactive waste. Pit 9 is thought to
contain about 7,000 cubic meters of sludge and other solids
contaminated with plutonium from Rocky Flats, and the
remediation effort was designed to demonstrate retrieval and
processing technologies that could be applied elsewhere on the
site. The DOE awarded a $200 million contract for this work in
late 1994, but the project fell behind schedule, and costs
exceeded the contract price before any waste had been retrieved
or processed. The contract has been canceled, and the contractor
has alleged that inadequate characterization of the waste in the
pit contributed to this failure. Excavation of waste from this
pit may not take place until 2004, fully a decade after the
initial contract was awarded.
Efforts are now under way
at Savannah River to develop a chemical process to remove
radionuclides, principally cesium, strontium and plutonium, from
the nonsludge fraction of its high-level waste for
immobilization in glass. Savannah River contractors spent 10
years and almost $500 million to develop an in-tank
precipitation process for removing cesium, but when this process
was placed in production in one of the underground storage
tanks, large quantities of benzene, an explosive hazard, were
generated. Subsequent investigations and experiments failed to
positively identify the benzene-generation mechanism, although a
catalytic reaction involving trace elements in the waste was
thought to be responsible.
DOE–funded scientists
are now developing a solvent-extraction process that has a high
selectivity for cesium. This process looks promising, but the
schedule for waste retrieval and processing has been set back
several years. The delay would likely have been much longer if
not for the foresight of the department's research and
development organizations, which funded research on alternative
separation processes before the problems became evident.
There have been several attempts at Hanford, starting in the
early 1990s, to begin retrieving and immobilizing high-level
waste from its tanks using approaches similar to those at
Savannah River. Construction of a facility to immobilize about
10 percent by volume and 25 percent by radioactivity of the
liquid high-level waste finally began this year with the start
of construction of a waste treatment and immobilization
facility. This phase-1 project is slated to last until 2018 and
cost about $15 billion. Hanford has not yet determined how it
will process the remaining waste, or how it will retrieve the
solid or semi-solid wastes from its single-containment tanks to
meet the 99 percent removal milestone required by its compliance
agreement with the State of Washington. Retrieval of this waste
without damaging the tanks and releasing contaminants to the
environment may be difficult using currently available
technologies.
To be fair, the DOE has tried several times in recent years to
improve the effectiveness of the cleanup effort. In 1995, the
assistant secretary for environmental management announced a
"10-year plan" for reducing the high annual carrying
costs of the sites by accelerating the closure of smaller sites.
Several sites, including the Mound (Ohio) and Rocky Flats sites,
are now slated to be closed by 2006. The current administration
is developing a plan to "accelerate cleanup" by
focusing on risk reduction and negotiating with site regulators
to shorten cleanup schedules. The objective is to reduce the
current $220 billion to $300 billion estimated life-cycle cost
of the cleanup program by $100 billion and 40 years.
Although these goals strike us as sensible, the success of this
effort will hinge on several factors. Will regulators be willing
to modify their compliance agreements with the DOE? Will state
and local authorities and the site administrators themselves
allow reallocation of budgets so that high-risk projects can be
funded on an accelerated schedule—or conversely, will
Congress allocate additional funds for this purpose? Will the
DOE and contractors exercise good judgment in developing and
applying remediation plans and, especially, learn from past
experiences at the sites to avoid repeats of some of the
problems described previously? Can DOE-funded investigators come
up with timely solutions when new problems are identified, as
they did for the cesium-separation problem at Savannah River?
Coming to Terms with "Cleanup"
The term "cleanup" poorly describes the current
activities at DOE sites: Only a small portion of the
approximately $7 billion in annual funding is actually used for
contaminant removal and waste processing. Most of the budget is
spent on site surveillance and maintenance. The cleanup program
refers to these surveillance and maintenance costs as
"mortgage costs."
In our view, these high
mortgage costs are slowing work on high-risk problems that, if
not addressed in a timely fashion, could lead to nasty future
surprises. The slow progress in remediating the high-level tank
wastes at Hanford and Savannah River is of particular concern.
Many of the tanks are now well beyond their design lives and
contain chemically complex and highly toxic waste, much of it in
a liquid state. Some of the tanks are now leaking, and the
number of "leakers" is likely to increase as the tanks
age. Accidents, acts of God and terrorism are also concerns as
long as the liquids remain in the tanks. Under current
schedules, it will be several decades before all of this waste
is recovered and immobilized, and some of the hardest work (such
as retrieval of the "bottoms," rich in transuranic
elements such as plutonium, from the single-containment tanks at
Hanford) is being deferred until the later stages of the
remediation effort.
The use of the term
"cleanup" also suggests that the primary objective of
the program is to remove waste and environmental contamination
and return the sites to other productive uses. In fact, although
some sites or parts of sites can be cleaned up and released for
other uses, sometimes with few or no restrictions, the DOE has
acknowledged that this will prove to be the exception rather
than the rule and that parts of more than 100 sites are expected
to be unacceptable for unrestricted release after cleanup. At
many sites, and especially the large ones, contaminants are too
widely dispersed in the environment to be recovered with current
technologies. The stored wastes that exist at these sites can
(and should) be processed to reduce volumes and stabilize the
hazardous constituents, but after processing much of this waste
will be reburied at the site. The hazards will be reduced or
relocated, but not eliminated.
This fact is well
recognized within the program, which defines cleanup as the
completion of those actions necessary to meet agreed-upon
standards and objectives, and not necessarily the removal of all
waste and contamination. The expectations of regulators and
local communities for achieving contaminant reduction and waste
removal have been moderated since the cleanup agreements were
signed as the technical difficulties and high costs of progress
have become apparent. We sense, however, that expectations may
still be higher than warranted in view of the difficult problems
ahead, especially for the remediation of burial pits and
trenches (such as Pit 9) and the retrieval and processing of
high-level waste from the underground tanks, especially at the
Hanford Site. Past success in site cleanup may not be a good
harbinger of future prospects, because most of the difficult and
costly problems have yet to be tackled.
Reducing and Managing Risk
Since its
creation in 1989, the cleanup program has focused on developing
and executing negotiated milestones to achieve specific cleanup
tasks or levels of contaminant reduction, while at the same time
(according to some critics) maintaining high levels of
employment at sites that no longer have a national defense
mission. It is becoming clear that many of these
"activity-based" milestones may not be achievable with
current technologies. Furthermore, the milestones are not
designed around goals of protecting human and environmental
health. If achieving such protection is the ultimate goal of the
cleanup program, we believe that it may make more sense to
organize major programmatic milestones around agreed-to levels
of risk reduction without specifying in advance the specific
remedial actions to be taken to achieve those reductions.
The judicious use of "risk-based" milestones could
have several benefits. Such milestones could, for example,
provide a better measure of progress and encourage the
investment of funds where the greatest risk reductions could be
achieved. They also could encourage greater creativity in the
selection of "end states" for cleanup and the remedial
actions to achieve them, creativity that is lacking in current
activity-based milestone approaches.
Of course, the
use of a risk-based approach requires that risk estimates be
developed for site hazards. The cleanup program has had
difficulty developing a risk-based analysis—the sites are
complex, not all of the contaminants (groundwater plumes, for
instance) have been located and characterized, nor is all of the
waste adequately characterized. The cleanup program does not
even use the "risk" concept consistently: Sometimes
risk is defined based on effects on the health of off-site
populations only, not including on-site workers, and other times
risk is defined programmatically, that is, whether a particular
action can be completed on time and within budget.
Long-Term Stewardship
As the title of
this article suggests, a great deal of the environmental legacy
of nuclear-weapons production may end up being managed, not
eliminated. Many sites, or portions of sites, will not be
remediated to levels deemed adequate for unrestricted access,
and either the federal government or a state or local government
will become landlords of last resort, with attendant
responsibilities for protecting public and environmental health.
In some cases this protection will come in the form of long-term
surveillance to guard against human access or further
environmental releases, and in other cases active measures such
as groundwater treatment will be required. Some of these
responsibilities may last indefinitely.
These
long-term responsibilities have received little consideration by
the cleanup program until recently, and even now "long-term
stewardship" of contaminated sites is viewed as a separate
activity from cleanup. Yet there is a very real trade-off
between cleanup and stewardship—that is, protection
against a hazard can be achieved either by eliminating it
outright (through cleanup), managing it until it ceases to be
hazardous (long-term stewardship) or a combination of both
approaches. Over the short term, hazard management is usually
less difficult and expensive than hazard elimination, but the
long-term costs are not clear, and the effectiveness of
long-term stewardship depends to a great extent on the
continuing willingness and ability of future generations and
institutions to manage the hazard, factors over which the
current program has little or no control.
Given this
trade-off between cleanup and stewardship, we suggest that both
choices need to be put on the table when deciding on end states
and remedial actions to achieve them, fully recognizing that a
reliance on stewardship places a heavier burden on future
generations. The use of risk-based cleanup approaches described
earlier would help make these choices explicit.
There
may be good reasons for relying on stewardship in some
instances, especially if cleanup is not technically feasible or
cost effective. Indeed, society routinely makes this choice for
managing other kinds of waste, including chemically hazardous
waste, although there is little or no evidence to demonstrate
its effectiveness over multiple generations, and much evidence
to the contrary.
Under current regulatory regimes,
decisions to rely on long-term stewardship must be revisited
periodically, and further actions to reduce hazards made if
necessary and feasible. We believe that the ultimate success of
long-term stewardship as a solution to the waste problem at DOE
sites will hinge on advances in science, especially those
elements of the social sciences that bear on the effective
design and operation of durable institutions. There is reason to
be hopeful given the rapid advances in the five decades since
the Manhattan Project; yet continuing investments in building
scientific and institutional capacities are essential to ensure
the continued protection of people and the natural environment
around these sites. The cleanup program is planned to last for
several decades even under the most optimistic
scenarios—consequently, wise research and development
investments made today will likely pay great future dividends.
Acknowledgments
The authors are
grateful for the assistance of Allen Croff (Oak Ridge
National Laboratory), Kai Lee (Williams College) and Chris
Whipple (ENVIRON International, Inc.), who provided
information for this article and review comments on an
earlier draft; Thomas Wood (Idaho Engineering and
Environmental Laboratory), who provided photographs; Bruce
Napier (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), who provided
information on environmental releases at Hanford; and Roy
Gephart (PNNL), who provided information, comments and
photographs.